The Trans-Pacific Trade Deal between United States, Japan and ten other countries can shrink Brazilian exports by up to 2.7%, according to a study made by Vera Thorstensen and Lucas Ferraz, researchers from FGV School of Economics.

The scenario considers the removal of import fees and at least 50% of non-tariff barriers to trade as conflicting standards for products, for example.

According to the study, Brazilian exports will be affected because the products traded between the countries that signed the agreement will be comparatively cheaper.

Today the economies that make up the Trans-Pacific Partnership receive almost a quarter of the Brazilian shipments abroad; equivalent to 35% of manufactured products because of the American market.

Analysts predict that, with the agreement, the U.S. should focus their efforts on negotiating another mega-deal with the European Union: the Transatlantic Partnership.

The figures pointed out by FGV show that Brazilian exports would shrink by 5%.

“It is urgent that Brazil starts negotiating a free trade deal with the U.S.,” says Diego Bonomo, Executive Manager of Foreign Trade of the National Confederation of industry.

However, Minister of Development Armando Monteiro believes the negotiation of a free trade agreement with the U.S. is a country’s goal, but the idea is not “mature” and it is not feasible in the medium term.

According to Emanuel Ornelas, professor at FGV and researcher of trade policy and trade agreements, any market opening would be positive for Brazil, which economy is very isolated from the global production chains, but he is sceptical as the government has not implemented agreements.