Sberbank improved its forecast for the average oil price in 2016 from $35 to $40 per barrel, inflation – from 8.5% to 6.8%, according to the bank’s presentation on the financial results of the Q1 2016 under IFRS.
Sberbank also significantly improved its forecast for the average annual ruble exchange rate – from 77.4 to 68 rubles per dollar.
The bank also improved its forecast for GDP growth – from the decline of 2.2% to 0.7% in the current year.
Sberbank expects the lending growth of Russian banks at 0-5% in 2016, according to the presentation,
Earlier the bank forecast growth in loans to companies for the year at 6-8%, to population – decline of 3-5%. In addition, bank slightly downgraded its outlook for the growth of retail deposits – from 16-18% to 15-18%, loans to individuals – from 12-14% to at least 10%.
According to the Russian Central Bank loans to individuals in general in the banking sector decreased by 1.3% in 4 months of 2016, to the companies – by 4.4%, deposits of individuals – by 2.3%, companies – by 6%.
However, Sberbank expects to see continuation of decline in investment against the backdrop of high economic uncertainty. Net capital outflow will decline to $35 bln in 2016 against $57 bln in 2015, according to the bank.