The fall in Russia’s GDP in the Q4 of 2015 may be about 2%, the Russian Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said Friday at the St.Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2015).


“We’ll see the decline of roughly 2% in the fourth quarter, and by the end of the year it will be roughly minus 2.8%,” the Minister said.

The Economic Development Ministry expects in the Q2 of 2016 Russia’s GDP growth just over 2%. The increase, according to Ulyukayev, will be due to the restoration of consumer demand.

According to Ulyukayev the decline in Russia’s GDP in the Q2 of 2015 will amount to 3.5%-4%. “For the first time GDP decreased in Q1 by 2.2%. The overall fall in GDP in 5 months – 3.2%. I think the results of the second quarter will be even lower – falling to 3.5%-4%. It will be roughly the same in the third quarter,” the Minister said.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects to see the beginning of recovery growth in the Q4. “Thus the recession will last three quarters. The recovery growth will begin in the fourth quarter,” Ulyukayev said.

At the same time, according to his estimations, Russia could reach the level of potential GDP growth rate of 2%-3% by mid-2016. “I believe that we have a good opportunity to reach the potential level of output by the middle of 2016,” the Minister said. He noted that the potential growth of Russia’s GDP is estimated at 3.2%, below the world average.