03/03/2014 – 08h49
The average Brazilian voter in 2014 is between 25 and 34 years old, has a high school education and a low monthly family income – up to R$ 1,448 (US$ 618).
He lives in the Southeast region, in a small countryside town, with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants.
Candidates who manage to convince the average voter are very likely to reach the end of the dispute at the top.
Today, President Rousseff, the PT’s candidate for reelection, is the closest to this average voter. Her voters have the characteristics closest to those of the most common social profile.
That is why she is the leader in intended votes, with 47% in the most likely scenario – enough to win in the first round. This conclusion was drawn from data surveyed by Datafolha on February 19 and 20, which had a 2% margin of error – 2,614 people were interviewed.
The data show each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses. “It’s a map to let them know where they should attack and what they should protect,” says Datafolha’s general director, Mauro Paulino.
Rousseff is the only candidate whose majority of voters (51%) has a monthly income of less than R$ 1,448 (US$ 618), the lowest segment and the most numerous.
Another characteristic of her voters is the lack of schooling: 44% attended only elementary school and 44% went to high school – the figures are similar to those of most Brazilians.
The only strongly dissonant characteristic is regional. Rousseff voter are concentrated in Brazil’s Northeast and are fewer in the Southeast.
On the other side are the voters of former cabinet minister Marina Silva (PSB), and, in some segments, those of Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB).
Nearly 30% of Silva’s electors have a college education (Rousseff’s amount to 12%). And most of Silva’s electors live in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants.
Neves’s voters are mainly men, (57%), live in the Southeast (57%) and have a higher income, which suggests a possible repetition of the class division that occurred in 2006 and 2010.
The supporters of Pernambuco Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB), are also mainly in the Northeast and in medium-sized cities, between 50,000 and 200,000 inhabitants.