China’s economic growth is expected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2014 due to multiple downward factors, said a report by a leading investment bank Tuesday.
In its quarterly report, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) attributes the “weakened growth momentum” mainly to the restraining effects on demand, of economic restructuring and financial risk control.
The figure was lower than the previous 7.6 percent forecast by the investment bank earlier this year.
CICC also cut the economic growth forecast for the first quarter from the previous 7.8 percent to 7.3 percent.
In the short term, it is difficult for macroeconomic policies to strike a balance between readjusting the economy and maintaining growth, leading to persistent downward pressure on the growth of demand, it said.
As GDP growth is no longer the its top priority, the government would not adopt full-scale monetary easing policies, said the report. The authorities’ determination to rein in financial risk will also dent investment, with the negative effects already emerging, said the report.
China’s economy, which began to soften at the end of last year, showed more signs of a slowdown Monday. The latest evidence was found in the HSBC’s preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which dipped to an eight-month low of 48.1 from a final reading of 48.5 in February. This means manufacturing contracted for the third month in a row in March.
The slowdown is not unexpected, and is a result of the determination of the leaders to reform the economy, the report quoted Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, as saying.
The top decision makers concluded that China’s economy is currently in a period of “painfully readjusting, shifting the gear for growth pace and digesting the previous stimulus policies,” he noted.