The Horn of Africa Needs an End to the Gulf’s Proxy Wars. Cooperation Is Key.

Source: The Century Foundation | Original Published At: 2025-11-17 08:30:50 UTC

Key Points

• Saudi Arabia and UAE compete for influence in the Horn of Africa through economic investments, security partnerships, and proxy alliances.
• Regional conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia are exacerbated by Gulf rivalries, with UAE backing Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia aligning with Eritrea.
• Gulf states provide humanitarian aid and infrastructure investment but risk destabilizing the region through zero-sum competition.
• Coordination between Gulf powers could enhance peacebuilding, economic development, and maritime security in the Red Sea corridor.
• U.S. disengagement from the Horn of Africa creates a vacuum for Gulf-led regional stability initiatives.

Across the Horn of Africa, a dangerous “great game”-style contest for influence is brewing between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With civil war raging in Sudan, unrest in Ethiopia, and unending instability in Somalia—to name just a few of the region’s challenges—the stakes could not be higher.

For the competing Gulf powers, the Horn represents a source of raw materials and much-needed agricultural products, and a strategic asset—both as the gateway to the Red Sea and as an arena for flexing geographic, economic, and even cultural influence. For the peoples of the Horn, this competition represents something much more ominous: yet another cycle of interference from foreign powers that have shown a willingness to sacrifice the peace, security, and governance of local populations to serve their own interests. Countries and militias and other nonstate actors are sorting themselves into blocs according to Gulf patronage, with deadly consequences.

Yet there is also potential good that could come from the Gulf countries’ interest in the Horn of Africa. Gulf countries are a source of humanitarian aid and conflict mediation, even if the related benefits have so far been overshadowed by the harms of competition. So too, Gulf countries have made much-needed investment in the Horn, and could do more if they worked together instead of against each other.

To mitigate the negative effects of Gulf competition in the Horn of Africa and bring out more of the positive potentials of Gulf interest in the region, coordination is essential. And the benefits of coordination would accrue to all involved. Aside from more aid and investment, Horn of Africa countries with conflicts would have better forums for negotiating peace. International powers, including the United States, would benefit from more stability in the critical Red Sea corridor. Not least, the Gulf countries themselves would enjoy synergistic economic and political benefits from coordination.

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